Should you sell Aguero for Kane?

FPL is a funny old game.

Only a few weeks ago the headlines were about how Harry Kane (£12.5m) was playing poor and needed a rest. Roll on two game weeks and he has become one of the highest ‘transferred in’ players off the back of a brace against Huddersfield.

There has been plenty of discussion in the FPL community about whether now is the time to own Harry Kane, and if Aguero is the man to make way for the Englishman.

In this article, we analyse this question and provide some advice on what the best decision could be depending on your squad situation.

Aguero and Kane Statistics

Kane has scored 3 goals in his last 2 matches, notably against Brighton and Huddersfield. His upcoming fixture against Cardiff has many FPL managers licking their lips at the prospect of a big points haul.

And for the non-owners, it seems that Sergio Aguero (£11.4m) has become the fall guy to fund this transfer. 50% of all the Kane transfers have been at the expense of the Argentine.

Looking at both of the strikers statistics, Kane has scored 5 goals and registered 1 assist accumulating in 44 points. Aguero on the other hand has scored 5 goals and assisted 4, totalling 51 points having played 110 minutes less.

Now for the controversial underlying stats (don’t hate us).

 xG90xA90Sh90KP90
Kane0.690.162.861.29
Aguero0.810.346.492.22

As it can be seen from the table, Aguero leads the way in all departments for underlying stats. His shots per 90 is the impressive figure that stands out, suggesting that the Man City man is creating plenty of opportunities in front of goal.

Kane’s resurgence however has been reflected in his stats over the past two matches. He produced 8 shots and 4 key passes over the 2 matches, significantly higher than his previous matches earlier in the season. Although the opposition can be questioned, it is evident that Kane is finding his feet again after an inconsistent start to the season.

It seems funny how FPL managers are jumping ship on Aguero, considering his underlying stats and goal/assist ratio being one of the best in the league. The alarming stat for Aguero owners is the limited minutes that he has played in the Premier League this season.

In the last 3 league matches he has been substituted in the 56th, 63rd and 67th minute and only completed 90 minutes twice. This is a stark contrast to Kane, who has played 90 minutes in every Premier League match.

Competition for places within Tottenham has been limited with the absence of Son at the Asian games, the only realistic alternative to replace Kane. Man City on the other hand have had Jesus to bring on in matches, and while Aguero has been getting the nod, it is at the expense of game time.

Fixture Schedule

In our eyes, both players are fixture-proof after proving over the years their ability to score in the big games. However, it is important to consider the fixture schedule when teams, like these two, are involved in major cups such as the Champions League. Here is Kane and Aguero’s Premier League fixtures for the rest of 2018:

Spurs                                                                                     Manchester City

Spurs FixturesMan City Fixtures

As mentioned before, Kane has been transferred-in recently for the easy fixtures of the previous 2 matches and coming match this weekend. However, we think at an overview the fixtures are kinder for Manchester City over the next 7 GW’s.

In these game weeks, City play 4 home matches while Spurs only play 3. One of them home matches for Spurs is in fact Man City, one of the most difficult teams to face at your home ground. City have scored a remarkable 13 goals in 4 matches at home this season. With City having 4 home matches in this period mentioned, its hard to ignore this volume of goals scored and to not own the main striker over this period.

Spurs face a difficult task on the road in this schedule, playing in-form teams in West Ham, Wolves and Arsenal. We believe that their is a case that Harry Kane’s value may be higher after game week 14, when the fixtures ease.

Throughout these Premier League matches, both clubs are balancing cup matches in the Champions League. After a defeat for both in their opening match, the pressure is firmly on to win the next few matches.

This could mean that both teams prioritise the Champions League, to guarantee their status in Europe. During the league fixtures, Spurs and City have Champions League matches in the midweek after game weeks 9, 11 and 13.

Notably, Spurs have a difficult Champions League match at home against Inter Milan. This match is being played in the midweek between league matches against Chelsea and Arsenal. If they don’t secure their place by this fixture, Pochettino’s hands maybe tied in making the changes in either of the league matches, and while Kane may not be rotated his fitness will be questioned.

City also face difficult Champions League fixtures, however it can be argued that they have the strength in depth to manage both competitions. This does however support the argument over the rotation risk of Sergio Aguero, and whether Guardiola will choose Aguero for Champions League matches and Jesus for Premier League, or vice versa.

Either way, it can be said with some confidence that Kane will play plenty more football than Aguero over the remaining league matches of 2018.

FPL Price

The final consideration for FPL managers is the additional £1.1m currently required to fund the transfer from Aguero to Kane. With the volatile price changes that we are seeing this season in FPL, it is essential to be wary of the price of players on your watchlist. Fantasyfootballfix provide a free, price change predictor that can be used to monitor your FPL players.

For many managers, they will require 2 transfers in order to fund Aguero to Kane, with the second transfer being a significant downgrade. For those who are in this situation, and in fact have to take a hit to do this, there are a few questions you need to ask yourself.

A -4 hit is never a good option, but when Kane is playing bottom of the league at home, it could prove to be a small price to pay in comparison. However, a transfer such as this usually isn’t a short term one, therefore we think your decision shouldn’t be controlled solely by the tasty GW8 fixture.

Yes, Kane could score a hat trick. The man is like a volcano, he is renowned for his explosive nature.

But the question is whether you believe both Kane and Tottenham will perform over the fixture schedule, while managing their Champions League campaign. If you were to look at the clubs for a moment and their current performance this season, it seems both are below the standard they were at last season.

City however do seem to be a level above Spurs still, and do have the ability to beat any team in the league home or away. This may not have an impact necessarily on the performance of a player, such as Kane is the majority shareholder of the goals for Tottenham.

Conclusion

So, our article currently has Aguero having the best statistics, fixtures and price value. However his rotation risk and lack of minutes support the reasons why some managers are wary about his future contribution.

Yes, Aguero is the best pick based on our analysis, however the Guardiloa roulette has become an actual thing, and a decisive factor in FPL decisions. His minutes should be a worry, Kane is playing up to 20 minutes longer than Aguero in some matches. Aguero is the main man at City, there’s no question about that this season. But Guardiola won’t let Jesus sit on the bench for the rest of this season, unlike Pochettino with Llorente.

We would look at it this way. If you are currently reading this article with your wildcard activated or have the funds and free transfers available, we would go for Kane. The reason being is that it is difficult to look past a player with the FPL history that Kane has. A guaranteed 90 minute Aguero would be a whole different story, but the regular substitution of Aguero is certainly an unattractive trait when seeking FPL assets. It means his bonus point potential decreases and obviously the potential to score significant goals.

However, if you have to take a 4 or 8 point hit to get the Englishman into your team, we think that sticking with Aguero is the best choice. Aguero is a minutes risk and plays plenty of matches over the coming months, but we don’t see how he is such a desperate transfer to take a hit.

Lets not forget he has 5 goals and 4 assists in 110 less minutes than Harry Kane, playing in a record holding City side. We fully expect Kane to outscore Aguero in GW8, but sometimes you have to consider the long term plan and why you want the player in your team.

There isn’t a right or wrong answer in this debate, the important thing is the reason why you have made the decision. Kane may score a hat trick this game week while Aguero blanks, and managers panic buy Kane. But the managers that have a thought out plan, such as holding Aguero long term for his fixtures, will be the winners and not be led to impulse decision making. We believe that this type of mindset is the best way to succeed in FPL, with thorough planning and belief in your decisions.

 

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