GW37 FPL Guest Q&A – Time to sell Spurs assets and buy United?

In this weeks FPL Guest Q&A article, we are joined by LetsTalkSoccer who will be sharing their thoughts on the most popular questions ahead of GW37. This week we will be discussing Spurs players, whether to avoid United, top strikers and triple captain.

Thanks to all those people that sent in their questions to us, we have picked out the most popular ones that have been asked. Like always if you enjoy the content, please give our Twitter account a follow along with our FPL guests this week.

“What to do with Spurs assets?”

LetsTalkSoccer:

Selection of Spurs players could be a tricky task for GW37. Their upcoming PL fixture is wedged between two Champions League semifinal matches. With a league title out of reach, Poch will most likely look to keep his star players as fresh as possible for next week’s match in Amsterdam.

So we see Spurs assets, specifically their attacking assets, as a bit of a gamble this weekend. Whether they start – and how long they play – are up for debate. There’s no clear-cut answer as whether managers should keep/buy or drop Spurs players. We’ll provide some reasons to support both strategies.

Keep (or buy) Spurs assets

In the reverse fixtures against their remaining two PL opponents, Son earned 34 FPL points (2 goals, 2 assists, 1 clean sheet) and Eriksen had 19 points (1 goal, 2 assists, 1 clean sheet) while the Spurs defense held 1 clean sheet. Though past results don’t necessarily predict future performance, this is certainly an encouraging sign. Son and Eriksen have the potential to explode with points in any given game.

As for Son, he was forced to sit out the first leg of the UCL semifinal game. He’ll have fresh legs and a strong desire to get back on the pitch.

Transfer out Spurs assets

The two Spurs players with the highest potential for points – Eriksen and Son – have seen their form slipping as of late. In the past three games, Eriksen has 1 goal and 1 clean sheet (both from the Brighton fixture,scoring that late game-winner), for an average of just 3.66 FPL points.

Son has fared worse. In those same three games, he has just the clean sheet. He’s averaged 2.33 points per game.

Additionally, if Spurs want to see themselves advance to the Champions League Final, they will need these two players well-rested and injury free. Can Poch really afford to have them on the pitch all that long over the weekend? Especially being down an away goal to Ajax? Seems that he’ll want them fresh and ready to play.

Bottom line

It seems like a big risk to spend a free transfer (or even take a hit) to acquire Son or Eriksen. Perhaps Moura is a Spurs attacker that’s more likely to start this weekend. On the defensive side, the risk seems much less, although they are playing away to Bournemouth, where Wilson has been dangerous recently. If we’re in the market to buy, we’re staying away from Spurs players.

If we own Spurs players, we’re likely to sell their attackers. There are more promising options for the weekend. And we’d think cautiously about their defenders. If we need to make transfer in other areas first, we’d hold onto the defender(s) and hope for an attacking return or two.

 

FPLFootballAdvice:

Spurs have been in a tough run of form, losing their last 2 matches and only scoring 1 goal in their last 4. The most recent lose came at the hands of Ajax on Tuesday night, making their return leg even more difficult next Wednesday. The fixture schedule has been hectic for the players, playing 8 games over 27 days in April with the 2nd leg only adding to this game time.

Spurs remaining fixtures include Bournemouth away and in-form Everton at home in the last game of the season. It goes without saying, that due to the fixtures many of the players are at risk of being rested due to fatigue. Therefore, ownership in any of their assets comes with an associated risk.

Defensively, we think if you own any then there isn’t any urgency to sell these assets. They have only conceded 2 goals in the last 5 league matches, so we don’t think there is any need for concern. Those Vertonghen owners, monitor the press conferences after he was forced off with concussion against Ajax.

The attacking areas are where managers seem to be concerned, especially those Son and Eriksen owners like ourselves. We have mentioned in previous articles that it seems Eriksen is due a rest, yet Pochettinho continues to play him. Eriksen has now played 17 straight 90-minute league matches, including full Champions League matches inbetween. We still think that he is due a rest and this could come during the Bournemouth match this weekend.

Son on the other hand missed the 1st leg and therefore should feature in the weekend fixture. Pochettino will see him as a essential player for the 2nd leg, but we think he will play as Spurs still need to secure their top 4 place.

We don’t think Spurs have shown the form over recent weeks to support holding onto all their assets. As mentioned, we think there is FPL value in the defence but from an attacking perspective there are better options available.

If you own both, Eriksen would be the priority sale in our eyes, moving to either a Liverpool, Man City midfielder. Outside of this, we think Pogba has great fixtures and could regain his form for the remaining matches against Huddersfield and Cardiff. Hazard is another that could be a nice move, facing Watford at home before a tricky away fixture on the last day against Leciester.

“Should we be investing in United players with their upcoming fixtures?”

LetsTalkSoccer:

If this were GW18-26, our response would be “hell yes”. Nowadays…not so much.

In their last five matches, they’ve won 1, drew 1 and lost 3. Not an ideal team form going into the last two games of the season. BUT…their fixtures don’t get much tastier. They’re at Huddersfield in GW37 and home to Cardiff in the final match of the season.

On a positive side, according to the oddsmakers, Man U have a 50% chance of a clean sheet. That’s joint-highest with Man City for GW37. So while having De Gea in goal might be worth a second thought, perhaps one of their defenders, who also provides the possibility of attacking returns, is a palatable option. Huddersfield have just 8 points from home games this season (2 wins, 2 draws and 14 losses).

Man Utd’s GW38 opponent, Cardiff, have conceded the third-most goals in the Prem (66 goals against). So perhaps it’s worth going with an attacking asset here.

To us, if you already own a Man Utd defender, it’s probably worth keeping him. There’s quite a bit of upside due to their final two opponents. If you currently own Pogba, perhaps hold onto him. He might even be worth acquiring. He did earn 28 FPL points when he faced Huddersfield and Cardiff earlier in the season.

But buyer (or owner) beware with Pogs. You never know what you’ll get with him. You might get the player that can tee up the assist of the season and knock in a beauty of his own or maybe drill home a couple from the spot. Or, you might get the version of Pogba that frustrates beyond all belief and makes you question whether he even played in the game. With him, it’s usually one or the other, and rarely somewhere in the middle.

As far Rashford and Lukaku go, we recommend staying away. If the FPL concept of “form over fixtures” is sage advice, it almost certainly applies here. Big Rom hasn’t had an attacking return since GW29 and Rashford hasn’t had one since GW32, and then you have to go all the way back to GW25 for his most recent return.

 

FPLFootballAdvice:

Nothing from the past gameweeks suggests any FPL manager should be investing in Man United assets. They have only won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches, conceding 10 and only scoring 4 goals.

In regards to their FPL assets, from an attacking view no player has stood out as a good option. Over the last 10 matches, Pogba has only scored 2 goals and assisted 1, accumulating in 33 FPL points. In comparison, the 10 league matches before this, Pogba scored 8 goals, 6 assists and amassed 92 FPL points.

Something has clearly changed which has made Pogba an unattractive FPL option for many managers. Rashford too has seen a similar decline in his performances, only scoring 1 goal in his last 10 league games. Similarly, to Pogba, Rashford’s form was much better before, scoring 6 and assisting 2 goals.

Although these stats all suggest not to even consider Man United assets, their upcoming fixtures are hard to ignore. They face Huddersfield away in GW37 followed by a home match against Cardiff in GW38. Both have the 2nd and 3rd worst defensive record in the league, while Huddersfield have lost their last 8 league matches, Cardiff 5 of their last 6.

Of all the teams, United arguably have the best remaining fixtures and need to win to give themselves a chance of top 4. We think that Pogba should be in the minds of FPL managers, especially with his track record against bottom half teams. If you are sat on a Spurs attacking asset and can’t afford to upgrade to a premium, then we think Pogba is a good move considering the fixtures.

From a defensive perspective, United have only kept 7 clean sheets this season compared to their 19 last season. Again, we shouldn’t be considering any of their assets, however the opponents make for good reading. Huddersfield have only scored the least home league goals (9) while Cardiff have scored the joint least away goals (11).

We think if there is ever to own a defensive player, it is now. Our recommendation would be Luke Shaw (£5.0m), who has 1 goal and 5 assists this season. He has cemented the left back position in the team so is a guaranteed minutes until the end of the season. While we wouldn’t be surprised if United concede, the stats support any managers considering bringing in defenders.

“If you still had a wildcard, what 3 strikers would you choose for the last 2 GWs?”

LetsTalkSoccer:

Oh, how we wish we still had our Wildcard! But we don’t so we can only imagine what we’d do.
Of the three strikers we’d select, two of them are on the team immediately. No question. They are:
  • Kun Aguero: He’s really a must-have, especially for this year-end, potentially title-winning push. He’s on good form that seems to be getting better. In his last three games, he’s scored 16 FPL points and the game-winning goal against Burnley over the past weekend. He’s a nailed-on starter (which it turned out he was for the entire season). He’s capable of destroying an opposing defense. and, he’s on penalties. Man City’s title chances go through his right boot. Badda bing! Badda boom!
  • Jimenez: Despite being many managers’ cheap, third striker for a majority of the season, he’s emerged as an excellent player to own. Maybe not at the essential level, but he’s somewhere just under it. Against the top 8 teams (Wolves are currently in 7th place), he has 5 goals and 6 assists, for a total for 63 FPL points. Despite playing Liverpool in the final match of the season, we don’t recommend betting against him. He’s a giant killer. He’ll put one away against the best the PL has to offer. With a goal in GW36, he’s got the confidence and the form you want in a striker.
The third striker is not a cut and dry as the first two. We’ll highlight one that’s more towards the premium end and one that’s more affordable.
  • Regardless of his final two fixtures being away at The Etihad and home to Chelsea, Vardy is always up to party. He has 3 goals22 FPL points – in his last two matches, and 6 goals, 1 assist in his last 5 games. It’s hard to find better form than his at the moment. In his reverse fixtures, he scored a goal against Chelsea and had an assist against City.
  • Speaking of good form, Wilson is right up there towards the top of the list. In his last three games, he’s scored 3 and assisted 3, and averaging 11 points over these last three outings. His upcoming fixtures are a mixed bag: home to Spurs, followed by away at Palace. Spurs’ team form has been off, losing at home to West Ham in a league game over the weekend and also losing at home to Ajax in the first UCL semifinal leg. He has the ability to strike Spurs when they’re a bit down like they are now. Plus, they’ll have an eye towards recovering from the Champions League loss so that they can overcome the goal deficit.

 

FPLFootballAdvice:

Fair play to those that have held onto their wildcards until now, and for those that have already used, this question is still relevant. We think that it has been a tough season for the ‘premium’ striker, with many being either injury prone or underperforming compared to previous seasons.

One premium striker that should be considered for any squad is Sergio Aguero (£11.9m). Man City face Leicester at home followed by an away match at relegation threatened Brighton. Aguero has proved his value this season, starting 13 of his last 14 league matches – missed fixture due to injury.

With City chasing the title and being pushed all the way by Liverpool, Aguero will certainly play the remaining two fixtures that you expect City to win. They also do not have European football to distract them, so Aguero doesn’t have the added influences and risks of injury.

Wolves have a mixed two fixtures playing relegated Fulham this weekend followed by title chasing Liverpool away on the final day. Fulham have the joint worst defensive away record and while Wolves have struggled against bottom 6 sides, we fancy Jimenez to do well against the London side.

Liverpool to many sides would be a daunting task, however Wolves have a great record against top 6 sides. Jimenez has scored 4 goals against these teams, proving he has the FPL potential to finish the season strong.

We have discussed Man United assets in the previous question and we think they could come good in a wildcard side. Rashford came off injured against Chelsea, but if confirmed fit could be a great option for the last 2 games. At £7.3m, he would provide additional funds to go into the midfield areas to strengthen those wildcard teams.

“Best time to play your Triple Captain?”

LetsTalkSoccer:

Another chip we wish we still had. For those that do (we’re jealous!), we have some thoughts.

In GW37, there are certain matchups that catch our eye: Bournemouth v Spurs, Wolves v Fulham, Newcastle v Liverpool, Man City v Leicester, Chelsea v Watford.

In GW38, Brighton v Man City, Leicester v Chelsea, Liverpool v Wolves, Man Utd v Cardiff, and Spurs v Everton.

Straight away in both weeks, Liverpool and Man City players should be at the forefront of consideration. This is the homestretch, and everything is on the line for both teams. This is when great players step up and play great. So Aguero, Sterling, Mane and Salah should turn out to be the most-popular and most-reliable options in either week.

Again, based on matchup, we like the Liverpool players in GW37 and the City players in GW38. As with any captain selection, there are two main overarching strategies: pick a player that most will captain or choose one that could be a true differential.

Players like the four mentioned above fall into the first strategy. But, as we’ve seen, sometimes most or all of the popular choices blank. So that’s when a less-captained player can really make a difference – especially with a Triple Captain chip placed on him.

So if you’re not willing to take a risk, go with the City/Liverpool players. Some slightly less-captained players, but still somewhat popular choices, are players like Jimenez (in GW37), Vardy (GW38), Wilson (GW37), Son (GW37/38), Pogba (GW38), and Hazard (GW37). Depending on the size of their hauls, they could prove to be decent differentials.

If you’re extremely risk tolerant, put it all on the line with players like Mitrovic (GW37), Jota (GW37), Rondon (GW37), Tielemans (GW38), Maddison (GW38) or Sigurdsson (GW38) – to name a few. All of them are extremely capable of yielding strong returns.

One important thing to remember: a captain is only a differential if he hauls and all (or mostly all) of the most-selected captains blank. If Mitro racks up the points, but so do Kun, Mo and the rest of the usual suspects, it doesn’t mean that you’ll see a massive green arrow. But, there’s something to be said for taking a chance on a player. It injects some fun into a game that can sometimes be extremely methodical and template driven.

Lastly, trust your gut. So many times, we find ourselves or others pondering on what could’ve been if we’d stuck with our original choice. Try to avoid rumors and other unsupported chatter influencing your choices. Look at facts, stats, data and look at form.

We’ve seen some very large Triple Captain points collected this season. We wish similar success for you as you play your TC chip. Go get that green arrow!

 

FPLFootballAdvice:

The triple captain chip proved its worth last gameweek, with many managers benefitting from hauls from both Mane and Salah. In regards to still owning your triple captain, we think there are a handful of players and fixtures that could return some decent points.

Both Arsenal and Chelsea have decent home fixtures this weekend, however with the Europa League commitments we would be put off from putting the chip on one of those players. This is mainly due to potential rotation risks and fatigue that might affect the likes of Hazard and Lacazette, especially the way Emery has recently changed his team.

Man City have a Monday night home fixture against an in-form Leicester side. City are on a great run winning their last 12 league matches and we fancy them to extend that run. They do not have any European distractions therefore we expect the rotation to be minimal as Pep chases the title. Therefore, we think a triple captain on either Aguero or Sterling could be a great move.

The same logic applies to City’s final league match away at Brighton, where they could be crowned champions. Either fixture looks a great option and we think the best picks remain on Sterling and Aguero.

If managers are looking for a differential option, then Jimenez this weekend is one to look at. Wolves face relegated Fulham at home, a fixture that a month ago would be an easy victory. However, Fulham have won their last 3 matches keeping a clean sheet in each. We still fancy Wolves to edge the match, and Jimenez adding to his goal last gameweek.

 

 


 

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