In this weeks FPL Guest Q&A article, we are joined by LetsTalkSoccer who will be sharing their thoughts on the most popular questions ahead of GW36. This week we will be discussing the best De Bruyne replacements, triple captain thoughts and 3 week punts to climb those mini leagues.
Thanks to all those people that sent in their questions to us, we have picked out the most popular ones that have been asked. Like always if you enjoy the content, please give our Twitter account a follow along with our FPL guests this week.
“Who are the best Kevin De Bruyne replacements?”
What a shame for De Bruyne and his Man City teammates. It’s extremely unfortunate that a player of his calibre has been plagued with injuries. This most recent time back, he had really found his form – a goal and 2 assists in gameweeks 32 and 34 – and then he goes down injured again just 37 minutes into his first match of GW35.
While his ownership wasn’t astronomical, it had steadily increased between GW32 and Double GW35. And now, he’s the 5th most-transferred out player going into GW36. Thankfully for KDB owners, there are several very viable replacement options.
Below is a chart that we recently posted on Instagram and Twitter. It’s a comparison of several potential replacements. To keep the list manageable, we stuck to players within a £7.0m to £10.0m range. Please note that this was created prior to the Manchester Derby, so any data shown here for Manchester United and Manchester City players is updated through their first matches of Double GW35.
Despite having a relatively low number of points against his GWs 36-38 opponents in the reverse fixtures earlier this season, we think that Mane is a strong option. As shown several times this season, he has the potential to haul in any given game. With Liverpool’s eyes set on the PL title, we expect Mane to kick up to another level of play in these final weeks.
Also, Eriksen catches our eye. His recent form is exceptional and he’s demonstrated his ability to be the central point of the attack – much like KDB has been recently.
From a personal perspective, we were one of the many managers that transferred De Bruyne in to our wildcard squad. We think there there are a number of great alternatives that can fill his place until the end of the season. We have created an in-depth article highlighting our top De Bruyne replacements, that you should check out here.
“Is this the best gameweek to play the Triple Captain chip? If so, who?”
We’ve received this question quite a bit recently. GW36 could be an excellent week to play the Triple Captain chip. To us, the top options are:
- Salah/Mane (possibly Firmino): Take your pick of the Liverpool attackers! They face Huddersfield at home in GW36. Of the 69 goals conceded by the Terriers this season, 39 of them have been on the road. In the reverse fixtures, Salah had a goal and a clean sheet (8 FPL points), Mane did not play. In their last 5 matches, Huddersfield have conceded 16 goals – that’s 3.2 goals per match. We expect this Liverpool trio to take no mercy on the relegated visitors. Of the three, we like Mo and Mane because they have the additional incentive to increase their standings in the Golden Boot race.
- Son/Eriksen: Spurs play at home to West Ham in GW36, currently undefeated in their new stadium. As of late, both players have had a good run of form, especially Eriksen with the game winner against Brighton in GW35. In his last three home games, Eriksen has 27 FPL points (2 goals, 2 assists, 3 clean sheets). In their last three away games, the Hammers have conceded 6 goals – or 2 goals per game. Spurs are in a tight race to secure a top 4 spot, so we believe they’ll try to avoid the scare Brighton gave them recently by trying to score early and often against West Ham. Eriksen should be at the center of the Spurs attack. Son is a great Spurs alternative to Eriksen. In his last three home games, he’s earned 17 FPL points (1 goal, 2 assists, 2 clean sheets). He’s an extremely explosive player with the ability to score multiples. He’s been a bit quiet lately, but his form will pick up. This game could be the perfect time.
- Aguero/Sterling: Man City travel to Burnley in GW36. Despite Burnley having allowed just two goals in their last three home matches, it just feels wrong to leave these two players off the list! As we’ve all seen, these guys can light up an opposing offense with the best of them. In the reverse fixture, Aguero scored a goal (Sterling did not play). These guys are playing for a title, so we anticipate that they’ll both start. City have scored 6 goals in their last three away games. Of those six goals, Aguero has scored and assisted 1, while Sterling scored 2.
There are other players on other teams that could be good TC options, but we don’t love the fixtures they face.
Looking beyond GW36, some fixtures and players to keep an eye on as far as Triple Captain goes are…
- Wolves at home to Fulham: Jimenez
- Liverpool at Newcastle: Mo, Mane, Firmino
- Man City home to Leicester: Aguero, Sterling
- Man United at Huddersfield: Pogba (if form picks up)
- Arsenal at home to Brighton: Aubameyang, Laca (if their form looks good in GW36)
- Man City at Brighton: Sterling, Aguero
- Arsenal at Burnley: Lacazette, Aubameyang
- Newcastle at Fulham: Rondon, Perez (possible differentials)
- Liverpool at home to Wolves: Salah, Mane; Jimenez (you know how he does against the Top 6!)
- Manchester United at home to Cardiff: Pogba, and possibly Lukaku/Rashford (if form improves)
- Spurs at home to Everton: Eriksen, Son
- Watford at home to West Ham: Deulofeu (as a differential)
Looking at it a different way – by player first – we’d go like this:
- Salah: GW36
- Mane: GW36
- Aguero: GW37
- Sterling: GW36 or 38
- Son: GW36
- Eriksen: GW36
- Lacazette: GW37
- Aubameyang: GW37
- Jimenez: GW37
- Differentials: GW38 (Pogba, Deulofeu, Rondon, Perez)
If you have held onto your triple captain chip until now, then you could be in luck with the upcoming gameweek. For a reminder, here are all the fixtures:
The stand out fixture, and one that has been discussed in the FPL community, is the Liverpool match against Huddersfield. Huddersfield have lost their last 7 league matches and have conceded 39 goals in 17 away league matches. In comparison, Liverpool have only lost 1 game this season and score on average 2.8 goals per home match.
The stats all point towards a cricket score in their Friday night fixture, and ownership in at least 1 of their attacking assets looks essential. Unfortunately, from a Huddersfield perspective, FPL managers have been making decisions based on whether their players face them. The last 3 highest scoring players have all come up against Huddersfield:
GW33 – Vardy 16 points (2 goals, 1 assist)
GW34 – Lucas Moura 21 points (3 goals)
GW35 – Deulofeu 16 points (2 goals)
It looks like the pattern might continue, and therefore an argument to triple captain a Liverpool player this gameweek. Mane and Salah are the obvious choices so we have analysed their recent stats:
|Last 6 league matches||Goals||Assists||Shots||Key Passes||xG|
Mane has the better FPL returns while Salah is producing some decent underlying stats. If we had to pick, we would put the triple captain on Mane but there is certainly an argument for Salah. We don’t think that there is another fixture that is better than this one.
The fixture has an in form, title chasing team playing a relegated, leaky defence with two players hunting the golden boot. Does it get any better than that?
“Best 3 gameweek punt until the end of the season?”
It’s always risky – and pretty fun – taking a punt here and there. In FPL, we’re usually so calculated and stressed over each and every little decision, potential rotations, playing time, ownership and so on, that it feels good to go out on a limb by picking a non-template player. By remaining gameweek, here’s who we suggest:
- Babel: With 2 goals, 1 assist and 2 clean sheets, he’s on excellent form. And at just 0.6% ownership, he presents a huge differential if he has any sort of returns again Cardiff at home this weekend. He’s earned 26 FPL points over the last 3 matches, and has an xG of 1.42 over that same timeframe.
- Tielemans: Despite playing away to Arsenal, it’s hard to discount his recent form. In his last 8 games, he’s produced a goal or assist in all but one game. Not too shabby. He’s clearly an important part of the Leicester attack. In the face of his recent success, his ownership is very low – just 1.8%. Arsenal concede an average of 0.83 goals/game, while Leicester score 1.5 goals/game, so there’s a higher than normal probability of Leicester scoring.
- Yoshida: Over the last 3 games, he owns the third-highest xG on the team, and first among defenders. In recent games, he seems to be in situations that present real threats to opposing defenses. Defensively, his GW36 opponent, Bournemouth, are vulnerable to conceding goals on the road. Yoshida could capitalise on this strong xG form by putting one in the net. Low cost and low ownership make him that much more appealing.
- Camarasa: He’s in the top 4 Cardiff players in key passes per 90 minutes and expected assists. His GW37 opponent, Palace, concede an average of 1.56 goals/game. Set piece responsibilities also up the appeal of this midfielder.
- Martial: Man Utd are away to Huddersfield that week, where the Terriers have conceded 1.67 goals per game at home. Like Mane or Son, he has the potential to explode and bag a couple goals in just minutes. The Red Devils are fighting to finish the season strong, so look to Martial for points and differential.
- Redmond: He had his team’s only goal in the reverse fixture against West Ham in GW19. He’s got 2 goals in the last three games. With the highest Southampton xG over the last three games and West Ham’s propensity to concede goals at home, Redmond could provide the extra lift needed to finish the FPL season strong.
- Jota: Directly involved in 14 goals this season, he’s a bankable punt (if there is such a thing). He’s the Fraser to Jimenez’s Wilson. Despite playing away at Liverpool, we know that Wolves can score against the top 6 teams. In GW38, it’s go big or go home time. Jota could prove to be a huge difference maker on the final day of the season.
- Perez: A player with great recent form (4 goals in two games) goes against a Fulham team that have conceded the most goals in the league over the season. His confidence is as high as his form.
- Gündogan: With KDB out, he’s stepped in for a starting role and much more time on the pitch. On the final day, the title could be City’s to lose, so Pep will want to put his strongest XI out, which these days includes Gündogan. In his last three games, he has an assist and 2 clean sheets. The City attack is slick and powerful, providing Ilkay with the perfect system to feed balls into.
For many managers, the realisation of how close we are to the end of the season has finally hit home. Those mini leagues are looking harder to catch and the overall rank is becoming increasingly harder to climb.
If managers want to make some serious ground, then there are a number of players that we think could be great 3-week punts. There are some obvious picks that managers know very well about from the title chasing teams Liverpool and Man City. Players such as Mane, Salah, Sterling and Aguero are already highly owned and therefore aren’t considered differential options. However, these are players that can hurt your rank if you don’t own and in turn should be priorities over some of these differential picks.
It might sound crazy, but our first ‘punt’ comes from an already relegated team in the shape of Fulham. Mitrovic has been disappointing, not living up to his early season form. However, Fulham have won two on the bounce for the first time this season, with Mitrovic grabbing a goal and assist.
The promising aspect of Mitrovic is his underlying stats, registering 21 shots and 4 key passes over his last 3 league matches. While it could be seen as not being clinical, it does suggest that he is providing attacking potential. And the good news for Fulham, is they have 3 favourable fixtures to finish the season:
Cardiff (H), Wolves (A) and Newcastle (H). While we don’t recommend jumping on the Mitrovic train, at £6.3m and 10% ownership he could be a great player to own until the end of the season.
Although Man United have been in awful form the past month, they do have some notable fixtures. They face Chelsea at home this weekend in a must-win game for the top 4, followed by Huddersfield away and Cardiff at home.
No player has stood out over the past few gameweeks for United, but the defensive stats for both Huddersfield and Cardiff are some of the worst in the league. For context, Huddersfield have conceded 30 goals in 18 home matches, while Cardiff have conceded 30 goals in 17 away matches.
With an eye to the final two matches, we think a punt on either Rashford (£7.4m) or Pogba (£8.6m) could be a good move.
Redmond was a popular pick in many manager’s wildcard teams, and rightly so with his recent stats. He grabbed a brace in GW34, and has registered 9 shots and 5 key passes in the last 3 league matches.
At £5.4m and 4.7% ownership, he could be a great differential for managers in their mini leagues. Southampton have two home matches against Bournemouth and Huddersfield, with an away game against West Ham in GW37. The stats have been mentioned about Huddersfield, but Bournemouth too have a poor defensive record, conceding 37 goals in 17 away matches – 3rdworst in the league.
From a defensive aspect, we think that Spurs could be a good investment until the end of the season. They face West Ham and Eveton at home while playing Bournemouth away in GW37. Spurs have only conceded 13 goals in 17 home matches including 3 clean sheets in a row.
Of the defensive assets, we think Lloris (£5.4m) is a solid option ensuring gametime guarantee. He is only owned by 6.2% of managers and with their current home record, could add to his 12 clean sheets this season.
If managers want an outfield option, then Vertonghen is probably the best pick of the defenders. Managers should tread carefully with the outfield players at Spurs, with their busy schedule due to Champions League involvement, it could see heavy rotation.
Thanks again to LetsTalkSoccer for contributing in this weeks Q&A article. Make sure to give their account a follow and support their great work!
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