GW22 FPL Q&A – Kane, Aubameyang or Aguero?

In this weeks FPL Guest Q&A article, we are joined by fellow FPL accounts FPL Wolf and LetsTalkSoccer who are sharing their thoughts on the most popular questions ahead of GW22. This week we will be discussing the best premium striker to own, Son replacements and our imaginary wildcard squads.

Thanks to all those people that sent in their questions to us, we have picked out the most popular ones that have been asked. Like always if you enjoy the content, please give our Twitter account a follow along with our FPL guests this week.

“Which premium striker should managers prioritise in owning – Sergio Aguero, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang or Harry Kane?”

FPL Wolf:

That’s a hard one, I guess we should start with positives and negatives of each.

Aguero:

Positives – Amazing home form, returned in his last 3, in an attacking City team, lowest ownership of the three with 22.3%.

Negatives – Rotation Risk, has a persistent injury problem, City out of form.

Kane:

Positives – Spurs have hit form, guaranteed first team, returned in his last 5 – steady returns.

Negatives – Expensive at £12.6m, over achieving to his stats.

Aubameyang:

Positives – Explosive form, highest score amongst forwards, under achieving to his stats.

Negatives – Scores not consistent, shady captaincy, under preforming to what he should be.

Overall, any of these players are a great option, it just depends on how the rest of your team lines up. I’d recommend going with the forward that you don’t already have coverage for in your team as there are some great options for City and Spurs in midfield. Arsenal less as much but their form is mixed at the moment.

LetsTalkSoccer:

The first question back after the holidays, and we get this one!  A case can easily be made for any of them. So we’ll make an argument for each of them.

Aguero: Among the three listed here, he’s 2nd in terms of total shots (66) and first in hitting the woodwork (4 times). In his last three games, he’s scored 2 and an assist. If you watched those games, you saw that he could’ve scored many more times than that. He’s also the cheapest of the lot (£11.2m) and all of this having played a few hundred less minutes than the other two (1,247 minutes)

Kane: He’s been directly involved in the most goals (20 – 14 goals, 6 assists). He’s also had the most playing time on the pitch of the three (1,793 minutes), has the highest ICT Index (190.8), leads the way in total shots (70) and shots on target (33) and just behind Auba in points per match (6.2).

Harry is also Spurs only true option at striker, whereas Arsenal have Lacazette and Man City have Jesus and viable replacements, probably meaning HK will have the most opportunities to put the ball between the sticks.

Aubameyang: Just behind Kane with goal involvement (19 – 14 goals and 5 assists) in more than 150 minutes less minutes than the Spurs striker (1,640), he provides the most points per game (6.3). Auba has missed the most big chances (15), so if/when he converts more of those, his results will only rise.

Ultimately, as FPL managers, we’re almost exclusively concerned with two things: 1) Which players will produce the most points for my team? And 2) How does it impact my budget?  Because he’s just behind Kane with goal involvement, tied with him in goals scored, a slightly higher PPM, and is £1.2m less, we give the nod to Auba.

FPLFootballAdvice:

Probably one of the biggest headaches for managers recently has been deciding who to pick between Aubameyang and Kane. Now, Aguero has announced his return with a goal against Liverpool to make the choice even harder.

A quick look at the underlying stats and it is Aubameyang who leads the way, with 14 goals and an expected goal of 12.86. However, Aguero has the significant more shots per 90 (4.64) compared to Kane (3.49) and Aubameyang (2.93).

The question doesn’t have a correct answer, and instead at this point in the season it should be based on the squad and strategy you play. For us, our pick would be Kane as we want a player who is guaranteed to play every minute of every match. Spurs’s fixtures are brilliant, with 4 of their next 5 league matches at home and an away match against a toothless Fulham.

Aguero on the other hand plays in the highest scoring team in the league, therefore has a higher opportunity for goal involvement. The worry for us and what we have already touched on, is the minutes risk that Pep will rotate with Jesus. At his price tag, he doesn’t offer the security that we would look for as an FPL manager.

Aubameyang would be our second choice, currently the leading FPL points scoring striker. He has cemented his position as the main striker and posted amazing stats recently. Since GW16, he has an expected goal of 5.11, having actually scored 4 over the 6 league games. Kane (2.45) and Aguero (2.47) have posted significantly lower stats, although Aguero has played 2 fewer matches.

He is currently the form forward, and priced at £11.4m he offers additional budget to strengthen the FPL squad. As mentioned though, Kane is our first choice with the positives bigger than the other two alternatives.

“Which Man City attacking player should managers look to own? And does Kevin De Bruyne offer FPL value?

FPL Wolf:

There’s two parts to the question – Is KDB a good option and which City players should we be looking at. KDB is not good value atm, he has played hardly any minutes so isn’t quite match sharp yet and it’s going to take some time for him to get back to the level he was playing at last year. At £9.7m, there are much better options.

Out of the City assets I think there are 4 stand out options – Sterling, Sane, Aguero and B.Silva. Sterling, Sane and Aguero are rotation risks so won’t play every week but will bring explosive amount of points, so captaining any of these is hard. B.Silva will play every week and is the cheapest of the 4. He won’t bring explosive amounts of points but he will be consistent. He isn’t really a player you would captain however.

I would either own one city player and have a strong first player on the bench to prevent being caught out by rotation or don’t own a city player at all and put more money into a starting 11.

LetsTalkSoccer:

We’ll answer the last part first. Yes, KDB does offer FPL value, on paper and based on historical performances. It’s too early to tell with him for this season simply because we haven’t seen enough on him to form a real opinion. If he gets close to where he was last season, then, yes, he’ll be of great value.

And getting in early on him now might be the way to maximize that value because managers will get him at his lowest price and he’ll be a solid differential for the near future. And, over the next 9 weeks, City only have 2 fixtures with an FDR of more than 3, making the time for KDB to come back with a bang is now.

As for the first part of this question, if Bernardo Silva was a 90 minute per game player, we’d name him as the City attacker to own. He’s mid-priced and can score and assist with the best of them. And giving him the “eye test” throughout the Liverpool game, he impressed us most. But, with David Silva back in the starting XI and KDB probably reclaiming his starting spot very soon, Bilva’s playing time (and subsequently his returns) will most likely shrink.

That leaves us with Sterling. Just over 10% ownership, he’s a differential. His points per match is 7.1, just behind Salah who leads this category for midfielders. Plus, Sterling is a full £2.0m less than Mo.

FPLFootballAdvice:

Personally, we think De Bruyne is a brilliant FPL player but not worth the risk at the current moment. Valued at £9.7m, he is more expensive than both Sane and D. Silva.

For us, we think the decision is between Sane or Sterling. Sane has amazing stats and priced at £9.5m, he offers the cheaper option in the City midfield. Sterling on the other hand is the expensive choice, currently priced at £11.3m but will have a bigger effect on the structure and personal in your team.

Some quick stats on the two:

 PriceFPL PointsMinutes PlayedGoalsAssists
Sane £9.5m107116579
Sterling£11.3m127147399

Leroy Sane underlying stats:

Sane Stats

Source: understat.com

Raheem Sterling underlying stats:

Sterling Stats

Source: understat.com

So as it can be seen in the stats, there is not much separating the two. While Sterling has the most FPL points and goals, Sane is leading the way for points per minute and offers better FPL value at his current price.

Opting for Sterling basically prices you out of either Salah or Hazard, so the decision is whether you value Sterling’s value higher than either of the two. We personally would pick Sane due to the additional funds that his transfer would provide to strengthen other areas of the team. Managers should be wary of the future return of Mendy and how it will affect his output, but for now it is not a concern.

“Best FPL replacement for Son Heung-min?”

FPL Wolf:

I think the best players to look at for Son is another Spurs player. Spurs are in great form at the moment so even though Son isn’t playing, I expect them to keep going. There are 4 possible options, Eriksen, Lamela, Lucas Moura or Alli. I expect all 4 to play while Son is missing.

Erik Lamela:

Lamela is the cheapest option at £6.1m which is a nice price but he is always an injury doubt, when he has been playing though he has been bringing in points with returns in 6 of his 11 GW’s he has featured in.

Lucas Moura:

Lucas Moura is more expensive at £6.9m but he has been playing a lot more football than Lamela. He has however found himself down the pecking order at Spurs due to his inconsistency in form which shows in his FPL returns, he has only produced in 6 of his 19 GW’s he has featured in.

Dele Alli:

Alli is another option although he does cost more than Son at £8.9m. Alli has been a frustrating figure this season for FPL and has only produced 49pts in 21 game weeks. This has largely been due to his injury problems which shows in him missing in 9 GW’s. Personally I think the others hold better value. The only thing going for Alli is his low ownership of 0.4% which is a great differential if he was to land big points.

Christian Eriksen:

I honestly think Eriksen is the best option. Slightly more expensive than Son at £9.3m, I think he holds the best value. Now he is back from injury he has returned in 7 of his last 9 GW’s. The stats are all going for him in creating lots of opportunities for assists and I expect him to hold a much more important role to feed the other Spurs players into the game now Son is out.

He also has a low ownership of 6.2% making him a great rank booster. His price also means it can be an easy swap back to Son once the South Korean man returns.

LetsTalkSoccer:

What a performance Sonny has turned in. Very impressive!  Which makes it difficult to replace him. It might be that the best owners can hope for is to have someone occupy his roster spot until he returns from the Asian Cup.

In terms of similarly-priced midfielders, Pogba (£8.4) and David Silva (£8.5) come to mind first. There are also lots of great options for less money, including Fraser, Felipe Anderson, Pereyra, Martial, Bernardo Silva and Richarlison. Of all players listed here, Fraser has the most FPL points (109), while Pogba has the most points per match (5.6).

Over the period of time that Son will he gone, we think Pogba is the best option. He’s has a huge resurgence under OGS and and its clash with Spurs this weekend, Man United have FDRs of 2, 2, 3 and 2 from gameweeks 23 through 26.

FPLFootballAdvice:

Son has been in amazing form this season, scoring an incredible 88 points in his last 9 league matches. With him leaving for the Asian cup, managers are now looking for the best alternative to replace him in their teams.

As a direct replacement, our first pick would be Paul Pogba. United have been rejuvenated under Solskjear, and Pogba is one of the key men in the team. He has registered 49 points in his last 4 league matches, including 4 goals and 4 assists. His minutes are guaranteed in the team and priced at £8.4m would leave some handy money in the bank.

As a direct Spurs replacement, Moura hasn’t done enough over recent weeks to justify making the move. If you have the money in the bank, then Eriksen would be the only player we would recommend from the Spurs team. Set pieces and great form suggests that he will be an important part if they want to chase a league title.

“If you were wildcarding, what would your squad look like? What are the essential players? Are you planning on playing yours anytime soon?”

FPL Wolf:

Personally I have played my wildcard, I built my team for the Christmas period and always planned on playing it shortly after the festive period. It was only accelerated by my free fall in points the last two GW’s.

I would say some great players to look at are the following… Pogba, Eriksen, Van Aanholt, AWB, Digne, Pereira, Salah, TAA, Etheridge, Lloris, Kane, Aubameyang, Hazard, Jimenez.

Now I recommend some of these players for the following reasons, either they have a majority ownership so you don’t fall behind when they score big, they are a steady source of points or they are great differentials.

Pogba, Salah, Kane, Aubameyang and Hazard all have high ownerships so its great to make sure you have a mix of these in the team. They are also some of the highest scorers in recent weeks. I would also add that I think Salah is essential now if you choose to wildcard. He is the top FPL players at the moment and it’s easier to remove Salah later in the season than it is to draft him in at an incredible £13.3m!

Eriksen and Van Aanholt are great differentials with under 10% ownership. Van Annholt is a great option because he will provide the same basic clean sheets that AWB brings but he also has attacking returns in him.

The time of Fabianski is up I think, his fixtures are drying up and he has struggled for clean sheets. There are better options in Etheridge who while he doesn’t have great fixtures, has still been providing points and has returned more than Fabianski already. Did I mention he’s cheaper too?

Lloris is also a good option, a constant figure in the Spurs defence that is often rotated and he also has a low ownership of 5.1%! Will pick up clean sheets and save points for that extra cash if you can afford it.

Pereira, Digne, TAA, AWB and Jimenez are all nicely priced players that can free up funds and provide points. Pereira is listed as a defender so he picks up clean sheet points but he has been deployed as a RM or even a RW this season. An attacker listed as a defender? Gold dust for points!

Digne is the most creative defender so can bring in large patches of points and TAA is a cheap way to get into a tight Liverpool defence that will also bring attacking returns. I actually swapped out Robertson for him in my wildcard because they have very similar stats this season yet TAA is £1.4M cheaper?

I think it’s also key to point out there is no wrong time to wildcard, whenever you think your squad needs a dramatic change. I’ve seen lots of comments on twitter saying people are idiots for wild carding now. However, if you have a plan behind your wildcard then it makes perfect sense! Stick to your strategy and it should pay off at some point in the season.

If you do use your wildcard now though, make sure you pick some long term options because the harsh reality is you probably won’t be able to dramatically change your squad between now and the end of the season without taking hits!

LetsTalkSoccer:

We might play our Wildcard soon. The holidays hurt our team – a great lineup but points fell short of expectations. So we have some catchup to play, meaning that we might play our Wildcard soon in order to set us up for success sooner than later.

When we play that chip, we’ll strongly consider the following players: Alisson (for obvious reason), TAA (great points potential for the price), Alonso (he’s slowly returning to form), Digne (form is rising and Everton have many favorable fixtures ahead), Doherty and AWB (both are excellent values).

In the midfield, we like Richarlison, Anderson and Fraser (excellent output for their prices), Salah (at his ownership level of 42.1% paired with his potential to bag multiple goals in any given game, he’s almost a must-have), Hazard and/or Sterling (another couple that can put up big points and also have strong matchups ahead) and KDB (he’ll return to form soon and he’s as close to a locked in starter as Pep has in his midfield).

Up top, It’s gotta be Kane and Auba for consideration, Aguero a close second, along with Arnie, Jimenez, Ings and Mitrovic for points potential at low costs.

FPLFootballAdvice:

We don’t plan on wildcarding this week as our squad looks fairly strong, here is a reminder of the team. However, we have plans to use the wildcard if we cannot get Salah into the team without a major points hit, as we feel he will be an important player over the second half of the season.

If we were to wildcard, here’s how the team would look:

Imaginary Wildcard

As mentioned, we value Salah as one of the essential players to own for the remaining of the season. Kane’s fixtures are too good to ignore, and with a striker we want guaranteed minutes and none come more than the Spurs man.

Outside of those two, we think City will be on the charge for the title so owning at least 1 attacking player will be an important ownership. Richarlison offers great value and playing on occasions as a striker is an added bonus, one to watch to see if he continues his form.

Plenty of value in the Liverpool defence therefore doubling up is a great move, and we like premium goalkeepers therefore Alisson would get our pick. Valued at £5.2m, TAA is a great way to get into the defence and with attacking potential he offers a cheap Robertson alternative.

Budget defenders in the likes of Digne, Doherty and Wan-Bisakka offer a good balance of attacking threat and potential clean sheets. United are rejuvenated under Solsjkear, owning Pogba seems essential right now while Rashford has the striker role for now. Ownership would be under monitor with the return of Lukaku and Sanchez with future rotation.

 


 

Thanks again to FPL Wolf and LetsTalkSoccer for contributing in this weeks Q&A article. Make sure you give their accounts a follow and support their great work.

Be sure to check out our previous article, Eden Hazard – FPL Troll or Season Keeper?

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