In this weeks FPL Guest Q&A article, we are joined by LetsTalkSoccer who will be sharing their thoughts on the most popular questions ahead of GW11. This week we will be discussing Leicester players, Callum Wilson, Martial as a differential and captaincy options.
Thanks to all those people that sent in their questions to us, we have picked out the most popular ones that have been asked. Like always if you enjoy the content, please give our Twitter account a follow along with our FPL guests this week.
“Are Leicester City players must-own assets?”
We think so. Not just because of the beatdown The Foxes dropped on 10-man Southampton, although it really did underscore why Leicester players can be good assets to have.
We’ve all seen – both through watching the team and reviewing the data – how potent the Leicester attack has become under Brendan Rogers.
At the tip of the attack is Jamie Vardy. He’s been referred to as a “stats buster” because his performance is strong in spite of underlying stats. For example, he has scored 9 goals this season, while his expected goals are less than half – just 4.28. Maybe he’s over-performing. Or maybe he’s just stats-proof! In his last 4 games, he’s scored 4 and averaged 10.5 FPL points per game. His form is strong and there’s no indication that it will slow any time soon.
Since most balls leading to the attack find their way through Maddison, he can sometimes be the player that assists the assister. Being on set pieces, however, and especially knowing what’s he’s capable of doing on those free kicks, it’s hard to look past him. He’s reliable – having missed just 1 game due to an inury. Otherwise, he’s a constant in the Starting XI. Compared to the averages in his position, he leads the way in attacking and creativity performance. His underlying stats are strong: 2.0 shots per game, 4 big chances missed, 2 big chances created and 1.4 key passes per game.
If Madders is out of budget, then Tielemans is a cheaper, but still strong option. He’s started all 10 of his PL games this season, and averages 89 minutes per game. He averages 1.6 shots/game and 1.7 key passes per game. And, he’s created 3 big chances. He’s a playmaker worth considering.
We’re a little more apprehensive with Ayoze. Until his hat-trick in Week 10, he’d averaged just 2.65 FPL points a game. It’s hard to tell whether he’s found some good form or if it was one very good game. If it were us, we’d hold off on selecting him to get a better sense of which player he is currently.
While there are good options at the attacking end of the pitch, there are some equally good ones at the defensive side too.
Pereira, Chilwell, Soyuncu, and even Johnny Evans could help managers get some highly-coveted clean sheet points. And of course, Schmeichel can aid managers with that too. Plus, Pereira and Chilwell can contribute attacking returns.
As shown below, based on the favorable fixtures coming up, we don’t think it’s outside the realm of good reason to even triple up on Leicester City players.
After winning a match 9-0, it’s hard not to be drawn to almost every Leicester player after that kind of display. Of course, Southampton played over 75 minutes with 10 men, but the Foxes have been excellent all season so far.
Jamie Vardy’s hat trick reminded managers – if they didn’t need it already – that he is one of the finest FPL forwards. Arguments go around about his stats and FPL price (£9.3m) making him unattractive, but we think those myths need to be dispelled.
If you have the option to transfer him in this gameweek, we would recommend managers doing so. Crystal Palace away is arguably their toughest fixture in the next 7 matches, while home matches against Everton, Watford and Norwich are prime fixtures. Transfer in and hold over these 7 fixtures at least, and we think Vardy will reward managers.
Outside of Vardy, Perez was another player to score a hat trick in the match against Southampton. Bought by over 130,000 managers ahead of gameweek 11, we feel that he is a FPL red herring.
Prior to gameweek 10, Perez significantly underwhelmed, only registering 2 assists and 0 goals in 8 league matches. While he may be a slow burner, finding his feet in the side, we think there are much better, consistent options than Perez.
At £6.5m, we think Tielemans is one of those options. Only owned by 6.6% of managers, he has already scored 3 and assisted 2 goals in 10 matches – steady returns. While Maddison has been a popular name, we think Tielemans could be the one to own in the midfield.
Defensively, Leicester have the joint best goals conceded (8) alongside Liverpool and Sheffield United. Their underlying stats are also impressive, sitting 5th for the best expected goals against (xGA) on 11.74.
These stats are enough for us to justify owning a Leicester defender, and our top picks are Soyuncu and Chilwell. Soyuncu offers the cheaper alternative into the side, however lacks the attacking potential, limited to gametime and clean sheets.
Chilwell meanwhile has already shown his attacking potential this season. Having only played 8 league matches, Chilwell has 1 goal and 3 assists – however 1 goal and 2 assists coming in the previous gameweek.
Either way, Leicester are providing excellent FPL options this season, and they shouldn’t be overlooked. Vardy is our top pick, but the likes of Tielemans, Soyuncu and Chilwell should certainly be on envy managers radar.
“Callum Wilson: Stick or Twist?”
He’s blanked in his past 3 games, providing a total of 5 points to his manager over that stretch.
While this happens to attackers – they hit spells of great form and spells of poor form – we don’t necessarily see any relief in immediate sight.
Looking at his next 3 fixtures, he face Manchester United at home, Newcastle away and Wolves back at home. His records against them are:
- 6 games vs Man U: 1 goal, 0 assists
- 4 games vs. Newcastle: 0 goals, 0 assists
- 4 games vs Wolves: 0 goals, 3 assists
That equates to a per game goal involvement of less than .30. We say twist. Players like Abraham or Jimenez (for a bit less) or Rashford (for a bit more) could be better options.
As a fellow owner, we have had the typical ‘missed the boat’ scenario with Wilson – or so it seems. After registering an attacking return in each of his opening 7 matches, Wilson has gone 3 games without a goal or assist.
Fixtures against Watford and Norwich are great opposition, therefore alarm bells have been ringing for owners. Over the last 3 fixtures, not only Wilson but Bournemouth in general have appeared to become blunt in the final third. Only scoring 1 goal in 3 matches, it is a world away from their attacking intent at the start of the season.
The underlying stats don’t make as good reading for Bournemouth, unable to register an xG above 1 against any side in their last 3 matches. As for Wilson, a combined xG of 0.12 speaks for itself over this period, but can he get out of this rut?
Firtsly, we think if you have the money and available transfers to upgrade Wilson to Vardy, then that could prove to be a great move both short and long term. Wilson faces Man United this weekend, followed by the stern Newcastle home defence – who have conceded the least goals (3).
Wilson is the type of player that rewards loyalty, history shows that. The stats indicate a need to sell him, therefore we think it could be a wise time to do so. He will continue to return points throughout the season as he always does, but at £8.0m there are cheaper options delivering the same or better returns.
“Is Anthony Martial the perfect differential?”
“Perfect”? That’s a big word. But “good” or “great”? We can get on-board with that!
In his first start back from injury he scored 1 and missed a penalty. Against Norwich last weekend, he lined up in the number 9 spot. That’s only going to help facilitate more goals for him.
At just 4.7% ownership, if you’re thinking about getting him, we say do it now. There should be an element of risk taking in FPL. That’s how you see the greenest of arrows. It seems like as far as risky players go, he’s not that risky. We think he’s a about as safe a bet as one can make on an FPL asset.
And just look at those upcoming fixtures! As Ferris Bueller once said, they are “So choice”! So, yeah, we think Martial could be a real difference maker…at least until his ownership grows. And if he has another good game, you can bet that his ownership will grow dramatically. This season, it feels like the FPL transfer market is so responsive that it’s harder and harder to own differentials for more than a couple games because once a player has 1 good game, he’s almost immediately among the most transferred in players.
So if you fancy Martial in your squad, it’s probably best to do it now while he is still a differential.
A differential can sometimes be exactly what is required when a squad has become stale or equally when a manager wants to boost rank outside of the ‘template’. And while differentials can be risky, we have a few criteria that they must hit.
Gametime – Yes it is great to have a 0.5% owned super sub score, but looking at a sustainable transfer, the player needs to play regularly.
Potential – What’s the point in owning if they don’t have a high FPL ceiling? It is a risk to own a differential as opposed to template players, therefore the ‘risk’ needs to have potential.
For us, Martial ticks both boxes along with added bonuses. Registered as a midfielder, but playing as a forward in a ‘top’ side, he could be the differential some managers needed.
Having only featured in 5 matches due to injury, Martial has already scored 3, assisted 1 and an xG90 of 0.89. With 4 great upcoming fixtures, we think that he is the best option below 10% ownership, and a serious consideration for gameweek 11.
Right off the bat, it sure seems like all eyes are on Sterling as THE man to captain in Week 11. He’s on good form. His team is on good form and has a very potent attack. He was rested in the midweek Carabao Cup match. And he’s at home to a Southampton squad that was torn to shreds by Leicester City a week ago.
But, maybe he’s not the slam-dunk best bet he might seem to be. His history against Southampton hasn’t been great. It’s been OK. But not great. In his 10 PL matches against Southampton, he’s scored 4 and assisted 3, which means his average per-game goal involvement is 0.70. That said, he’s almost certainly our GW11 captain. Why? Because we feel like he’s possibly the next player for a Vardy/Ayoze/Pulisic-type of 20-point performance. Just a feeling!
Other good options include…
- Kane: An excellent record against Everton, who’s giving up over a goal a game. HK, has scored 9 goals in 9 Premier League games against them.
- Aguero: Yes…he played alongside Jesus in the midweek match. But Jesus has played a lot of minutes recently, so it seems that the unpredictable Pep will start Aguero. And we all know what he’s capable of doing at home. If we had him, he’d have the armband.
- KDB: We can’t talk about Kun and Sterling without mentioning this guy. He’s involved in an average of 1.6 goals per game when playing Southampton.
- Mane: A bit quiet last weekend, he’s due for a big game. And it could be away to Villa. He’s got 4 goals in 4 games (plus 1 assist) against them. Villa have allowed the 4th-most number of goals this season (16, tied with Chelsea and Everton).
An argument could be made for just about any player above. But these are the 5 on our watchlist for the coming set of fixtures.
We wish everyone a green arrow in GW11. All the best!
Aguero owners, look away as this might still be a sensitive subject..
After being benched last gameweek, owners were at the hands of another Pep rotation, only featuring for 14 minutes. While we wouldn’t advise managers buying Aguero, we think if you own, you got to consider captaining. Of course, the risks are there for him to be rotated, but the points ceiling is exceptionally high this weekend after seeing how poor Southampton were defensively.
It seems like a broken record discussing City assets and captaincy, but again we can’t look away from them. Sterling has had fears grow over a potential rotation this weekend, but similar to Aguero, we think the potential outweighs the risk.
Rested during the midweek cup fixture, Sterling should feature for City and look to continue his start to the season. Sterling still tops the charts for xG of midfielders with 6.65, and an excellent 0.75 xG90. He will be getting the armband in our side this gameweek, and we would advise owners doing the same.
Outside of Man City, we think that Harry Kane is a surprising captain option against Everton at Goodison park. Few would dare to buy Kane this weekend after the recent form of Spurs, but Kane and Spurs have a great record in this fixture. In the last 5 league matches, Kane has scored 8 goals, with Spurs winning 4 and drawing 1.
It doesn’t seem like the most attractive captaincy option – and don’t get us wrong, City are the best options – but Kane could prove to be a sly move.
Big thanks to LetsTalkSoccer for contributing to this weeks Q&A article, be sure to give their accounts a follow for top tips throughout the season.
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