📊 87 points
📉 56,015 OR (500 place 🔻)
— FPLFootballAdvice (@FootballAdvice5) April 29, 2019
So we finished with 87 points and surprisingly a red arrow! The FPL average was 69 so it was a good week for plenty of managers, with many using their bench boost or triple captain. Congratulations to those that played their triple captain on a Liverpool player, we have seen plenty of big scores with Salah and Mane.
In hindsight, playing your triple captain during a double gameweek raises the ceiling for FPL potential. However, sometimes it is best to play it when you know an in-form team or player are playing against a team such as Huddersfield.
Spurs produced a very disappointing performance against West Ham, losing 1-0 and their first loss in their new stadium. The congestion of fixtures is definitely playing a part on their fitness, and this will only continue with the 1st leg of the Champions League on Tuesday.
It seems Pochettinho can’t afford to drop Eriksen, even though he has played 16 straight full league matches including Champions League in-between. Son on the other hand is suspended for the 1st leg, so would expect him to play against Bournemouth on Saturday. If you are a Spurs owner, we would recommend considering a sale if you own two attacking players like ourselves. Their performances aren’t suggesting a strong finish and the Champions League looks to be taking its toll.
Laporte has proved to be a great transfer during our wildcard, keeping a third straight clean sheet. He has amassed 44 points in his last 6 league matches, averaging 7.3 points per game. Aguero continued to prove he is exempt from Pep’s rotation, starting 13 of his last 14 league matches – the other was missed due to injury.
With the title race going down to the wire, Aguero will no doubt start the final 2 matches and looks one of the few must-own forwards. His form has arguably dipped over recent gameweeks, and prior to the Burnley match only registered 11 shots and 7 key passes in his last 5 league matches – far from his 4.31 shots per 90 average. However, he bounced back with 9 shots against Burnley and rewarded with a goal, and we expect him to return until the end of the season.
While Man City grinded out their win against Burnley, Liverpool reminded FPL managers of their attacking potential. Although playing Huddersfield, they didn’t show any signs of nerves and punished the already relegated side. The match also highlighted the range of options available, with Mane and Salah both grabbing a brace. Both continue to show their FPL value and it was Salah’s turn to get the bonus points with his additional assist.
Salah remains over £3.0m more than Mane, however the FPL points and stats don’t suggest value in paying this additional cost. During GW36, Salah managed 19 points, 8 shots, 4 key passes and 1.39 xG. Meanwhile Mane scored 13 points, 4 shots, 2 key passes and 1.29 xG.
Clearly Salah offered more of an attacking threat, doubling Mane in both shots and key passes. However, it is the xG that we are interested in, highlighting the difficulty of chances. The stats suggest that while Salah carries more attacking potential, some of these shots aren’t ‘probable’ goal scoring opportunities. Whereas Mane looks far more efficient with his performance, and should of picked up a hat trick last gameweek.
We aren’t highlighting this to put anyone off from owning either, but to put minds at rest for those that can’t afford Salah. The FPL value still lies with Mane.
Gray has turned into a great short term replacement for Deeney, scoring 2 goals and 5 bonus points over his last 2 league matches. Unfortunately, the return of Deeney might spell the end of Gray in the side, but has proved a great pick.
GW37 Transfer Thoughts
We decided to roll our free transfer last gameweek, with one eye on this upcoming gameweek along with a hopeful punt of De Bruyne’s fitness. Man City haven’t confirmed the fitness of KDB, and while we expect him to be unavailable, waiting until the press conferences will be the smart move.
Assuming he is ruled out for the next GW, we will spend one of our free transfers replacing him. We recently wrote a De Bruyne replacement article that we recommend managers reading if they are in the same boat. A player we hadn’t mentioned and maybe a contentious one, is Paul Pogba.
Similar to Man Utd, Pogba has been in a poor run of form only managing 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 10 league matches. He has averaged 3.11 sh90 and 1.65 kp90 so far over the season, whereas over these games has only taken 19 shots, 16 key passes and xG 3.38.
Man United have had a tough run of fixtures but they finish the season away to Huddersfield and home to Cardiff. Huddersfield have conceded 30 goals in 18 home matches while Cardiff have conceded 31 goals in 18 away matches. Although United have been in poor form, these are must-win games to give themselves any chance of finishing in the top 4.
Their defence leaves plenty to be desired but from an attacking aspect it looks like they could have some joy from an attacking view. The added bonus of owning Pogba is his set piece involvement, having scored 7 penalties already this season. At £8.5m and 31% ownership, his transfer would leave some money in the bank to upgrade other positions in the team.
Eriksen is the other player that we are worried about, with his recent gametime and Champions League involvement. After Pogba, the only other midfielder we want is Sterling but he would require a points hit to fund his transfer.
We want to own triple City if we can afford it, but the only other viable option is B. Silva. He is usually a trusted minutes option, however a poorer FPL option in comparison to Sterling. Silva averages 4.4 points per match, significantly less than Sterling’s 7.1 ppm. His underlying stats have been promising though, taking 11 shots and 9 key passes over the last 3 league matches.
Plenty of transfer options to think about, but we want to avoid a points hit if possible. Let us know on Twitter what transfers you recommend us making before the Friday deadline.
Captaincy for this weekend is slightly easier than previous weeks, however there are still a handful of considerations. After their 5-0 victory, you can’t ignore the fire power of Liverpool who face a potentially tricky away match against Newcastle.
The Toon have conceded 22 goals in 18 home league matches, keeping 5 clean sheets. We fancy Liverpool to get a goal or two, especially after winning the reverse fixture on boxing day 4-0. However, the added fixture of Barcelona before the game will naturally have a negative effect on their performance.
Jimenez was trusted by many managers as a differential captain option during the double gameweek 35, only to return 4 points. The Mexican did score last weekend in an impressive victory away to Watford. Wolves face a Fulham side that have won their last 3 league matches, keeping a clean sheet in all.
Wolves are notorious for struggling against sides in the bottom six and we think this has the making of another tough match. Fulham are high on confidence and while on paper Wolves should win comfortably, it is clear they find it hard to close out these types of matches.
Our top captaincy pick is Man City’s leading goalscorer, Sergio Aguero. The Argentine scored the only goal in their 1-0 win against Burnley and face Leicester in their last home match of the season. Man City are on an incredible run, winning their last 12 league matches while keeping 9 clean sheets and scoring 27 goals. They average 3.1 goals every home match, while Aguero has scored 15 of his 20 league goals at home.
Leicester themselves are on a good run of form, winning 6 and drawing 1 of the last 9 league matches. However, being their last home match and no other distractions we think Man City will win and a good opportunity for Aguero to add to his FPL total.
We will be making our transfers as late as possible, monitoring press conferences and any price changes.
Here is the team without any transfers, imagining KDB is one of the mentioned alternatives:
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