Aguero or Kane going into the Christmas period?

It seems that the FPL template has finally been broken and some big decisions are having to be made. The FPL community has been full of discussion over potential transfers and the in-form players to own. In this article, we have examined whether you should have Sergio Aguero or Harry Kane in your FPL squads going into the Christmas period.

Statistics

Aguero (£11.5m) is currently the highest points scoring striker in FPL with 82 points. However, it seems that for all his points, he is still getting questioned over his FPL value. The main reason for this is due to the limited game time many managers believe he plays in comparison to other premium strikers. However, surprisingly the only ‘premium’ strikers that have played more minutes than Aguero are Kane and Firmino.

The recent performances of Harry Kane (£12.3m) have sparked further discussion over the ownership of Aguero and his value over the Christmas period. Kane has scored 2 goals and registered 1 assist over the past 3 matches, becoming much more active in front of goal. He registered 16 shots over these 3 matches, previously taking 5 matches to have the same amount of shots.

It’s clear that Kane is starting to find some form, while Spurs themselves have been in a long run of form – winning the last 7 of 8 league matches. However, it shouldn’t be underestimated the performances of Aguero over recent matches. Over the same 3 games, Aguero has scored 2 goals and registered 2 assists – 1 better than Kane. While he has only taken half the amount of shots, he has created 5 more key passes, showing the other side to his game.

Here are the current stats of both after 13 game weeks:

 Aguero Kane
FPL Points8267
Goals87
Assists62
Minutes Played9551161
Shots per 905.023.46
Key Passes per 901.830.92

Aside from minutes played, Aguero leads in every other department, which shouldn’t be a surprise considering he is the leading points scorer. It shows that the City man has been the more prolific of the two, scoring more goals over a shorter period. Again, this should be expected considering Man City are considerably the highest goal scoring team in the league (40), while Spurs have only scored 23.

Although these stats speak for themselves, the minutes played does create a cause for concern. Aguero has proven that he is a prolific goal scorer, however naturally the more minutes a striker plays, the better chance they have to score goals.

Fixtures

Both City and Spurs face a relentless fixture schedule, balancing multiple competitions during December. Both Man City and Spurs play 9 matches next month, therefore squad rotation is an inevitability and should be considered for FPL managers. Going into this busy period, it is essential for FPL managers to have strong benches that can counter rotation within their teams. If you struggle with this problem, then our article discussing squad strength will provide some essential tips.

Here’s a quick look at both teams fixtures:

Man City

DateFixturesCompetition   
Saturday 1st DecemberBournemouth (H)Premier League
Tuesday 4th DecemberWatford (A)Premier League
Saturday 8th DecemberChelsea (A)Premier League
Wednesday 12th DecemberHoffenheim (H)Champions League
Saturday 15th DecemberEverton (H)Premier League
Tuesday 18th DecemberTBCCarabao Cup
Saturday 22nd DecemberCrystal Palace (H)Premier League
Wednesday 26th December Leicester (A)Premier League
Sunday 30th DecemberSouthampton (A)Premier League

Spurs

DateFixturesCompetition
Sunday 2nd December Arsenal (A)Premier League
Wednesday 5th DecemberSouthampton (H)Premier League
Saturday 8th December Leicester (A)Premier League
Tuesday 11th December Barcelona (A)Champions League
Saturday 15th December Burnley (H)Premier League
Wednesday 19th December Arsenal (A)Carabao Cup
Sunday 23rd December Everton (A) Premier League
Wednesday 26th December Bournemouth (H)Premier League
Saturday 29th December Wolves (H)Premier League

Firstly, looking at the league matches, City play 3 home and 4 away matches. Chelsea are the stand out fixture for City, while they have some great fixtures against Bournemouth and Southampton.

Spurs on the other hand play 4 home matches and 3 away, including Southampton and Burnley who are 2 of the 3 worst away defences. Like City, Spurs only face one other ‘top 6’ side over this period, being the North London derby this weekend.

If City win their Champions League fixture against Lyon they will be winners of their group. This will have a significant effect on Pep’s team, with the luxury of resting the big players in their last European match against Hoffenheim. It’s become impossible to guess Pep and his team selection but it would be a great opportunity for him to do this.

Spurs on the other hand face a similar situation, however in this case Champions League failure enhances their FPL attractiveness. Spurs must win every European match to remain in the competition – with results going their way – therefore Pochettinho has no choice but to pick his best 11 until their success/elimination. Like City, their fate may be decided this week therefore can afford to rest players against Barcelona.

As mentioned previously, rotation for both teams and FPL players is a certainty. However, it is fair to say that Aguero is the most susceptible to this compared to Harry Kane. The Argentine is in direct competition with Jesus, and while Aguero clearly has the nod, Pep has shown that he is happy to rotate the pair when required.

Jesus is currently injured, therefore Aguero is expected to start in this weeks European match against Lyon. If the Brazilian doesn’t recover in time for GW14, Aguero will presumably start against Bournemouth, which will please his FPL owners. The questions will then begin to be asked, and if Jesus returns, can we expect Aguero to then start again against Watford, with Chelsea that weekend? It would seem a game too many for the Argentine.

The benefit for Kane owners is that rotation doesn’t happen to him often, with the only option being Llorente who has never lived up to the manager’s expectations. Although it can’t be prevented, moving away from Aguero to Kane would certainly lower the risk of regular rotation. Yes, it is clear that even if Kane plays the majority of the league matches, he will struggle to maintain a high level due to fatigue. But the difference is Pochettinho does not have the confidence in Kane’s alternative, therefore we would expect him to play Kane as much as possible, unlike Aguero.

Conclusion

The decision between Aguero and Kane comes down to interpreting current statistics with how you perceive both preforming over the next month. In our case, we are predicting Kane to outscore Aguero over the Christmas period, however Aguero’s stats suggest he should stay in FPL teams.

We personally believe that the busy fixture schedule will inevitably create heavy rotation for every team and player in the league, not just Aguero. Therefore, we would want to reduce the possiblilty of further rotation in our FPL squad to limit the chance of using more bench players.

Kane would in turn be our pick of the two players.

What’s also worth noting, is that Spurs have also recently had their side rejuvenated by the return of some key players. Alli, Eriksen and now Vertonghen have all come back to full fitness, boosting the squad ahead of the busy schedule. The return of these players will only have a positive impact on the attacking potential of Kane, and we can see the Englishman rewarding owners over Christmas.

We want to emphasis the fact that both Kane and Aguero are playing in great teams and both are bound to score decent points over this period. If your decision doesn’t bring immediate returns, don’t rush into knee-jerk transfers in order to rectify perceived ‘mistakes’. Transfers like these require thought-out strategies and you should plan for the potential game week of no returns.

 


 

We hope that this has helped with your decision in owning Aguero or Kane, and not caused even more headaches!

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